The Mets, who have to fill multiple rotation vacancies, could look to Snell as a potential addition.
It’s not often that a two-time Cy Young Award winner experiences such difficulty finding a new home when hitting free agency, but that’s exactly what happened with Blake Snell last offseason. In 2023, Snell earned his second career Cy Young Award as a member of the Padres. Despite that, Snell remained unsigned well into spring training, until he finally inked a two-year deal with the Giants on March 19. The contract included an opt-out after the first year, which Snell went on to exercise, leading him back into free agency for a second straight year. Snell is hoping for better luck, or at least less stress and waiting, this time around, and he is likely to find many teams calling for his services.
Snell, who debuted in 2016, previously won the Cy Young Award in 2018 for the Rays, when he again led the league in ERA (1.89) and earned the lone All-Star nod of his career while posting a 4.7 fWAR. However, he was unable to replicate that success in the years that followed. From 2019-2022, he finished 35th among 110 qualified starting pitchers in MLB in fWAR (9.0), 48th in ERA (3.85), 58th in innings pitched (413 2⁄3) and 108th in BB/9 (3.87). On the point about innings pitched, the left-hander earned a reputation as someone who would be a “five-and-dive” starter and not someone who could give you length consistently enough to serve as a dependable ace.
Snell arrived in San Diego via trade after the 2020 season, where he posted a 4.20 ERA in his first year before bouncing back for a 3.38 ERA in 2022. He put it all together in 2023, winning the Cy Young despite leading the National League with 99 walks. He tossed 180 innings across 32 starts, which represented just the second time he reached 30+ starts and 180+ innings in his career after that 2018 Cy Young campaign. He also posted a career-best with 234 strikeouts, which topped the 221 punch outs he had in 2018. He defected South California for Norther California with the aforementioned two-year contract with San Francisco.
It’s hard to properly gauge his 2024 campaign by just looking at the numbers in a vacuum. He ended the year with a 3.12 ERA, a 2.43 FIP, and a 1.05 WHIP in 104 innings across 20 starts. He struck out 145 and walked 44 and posted a career-best with 0.5 HR/9. But it was a tale of two halves for Snell, who also endured two stints on the IL which limited his starts. With a limited spring training given the late signing, it’s fair to wonder how ready Snell was to begin the year. He did begin the year for the club on April 8 and made three starts before missing a month after suffering a left adductor strain. He returned to make three starts before again landing on the IL in June with a left groin strain.
To that point, he had a 9.51 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and a 1.94 WHIP in 23 2⁄3 innings. His ERA was third-worst among starters who tossed at least 20 innings to that point in the year. In that stretch, opponents slashed .308/.395/.500 against Snell. Upon his return on July 9, he was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Over the final 14 starts, he posted a microscopic 1.23 ERA, a 1.77 FIP, and a 0.78 WHIP in 80 1⁄3 innings, with opponents hitting .123/.211/.171 against him. His ERA was third-best among starters with at least 30 innings pitched, and his 3.1 fWAR was second-best. During that time, he also threw a no-hitter on August 2 against the Reds and completed at least seven innings on three separate occasions. With a second half like that, it was never really a question of whether Snell would exercise the opt out in his contract.
In looking at FanGraphs, Snell’s Median Crowdsource number is estimated at four years with a $30.0 million AAV, resulting in a $120 million contract overall. At 31 years old, that’s a palatable contact, especially if you believe that Snell is not likely to start declining soon after signing the new deal. If he is able to replicate anything close to his second half numbers with a new club, he should slot in nicely at the top of many teams’ rotations. The main concerns with Snell remain his inability to consistently eat innings and his propensity for issuing walks, though he has continued to reliably strike out batters, with an 11.79 K/9 since 2018 that puts him fifth among all qualified starting pitchers in baseball.
The Mets represent a logical landing spot for Snell given their need to reconstruct their entire rotation. Beyond Kodai Senga and David Peterson, the team will need to fill at least three, and possibly four, spots, especially if they want to go with a six-man rotation, which is likely with Senga. If anything, a six-man rotation makes New York a perfect future home for Snell. The lefty, who has endured a lot of injuries and isn’t one to throw more than 120 innings most seasons, would benefit from the lightened load and it could take pressure off of him not going deep into his starts.
With Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and José Quintana all hitting free agency, the Mets will be very active in looking to sign multiple arms this winter. Aside from Corbin Burnes, you could make a strong case that Snell is the best available name, and would give them a tough tandem at the top of the rotation alongside Senga’s ghost fork. He would also likely command far less than what Burnes is expected to earn, in terms of years and in terms of AAV, which could make him someone worth considering if Burnes proves too rich for Steve Cohen and David Stearns’ blood.
Last winter, the Mets were never really serious contenders for Snell, even when he remained available through February. That could change this year with the team’s needs in filling multiple rotation vacancies, and with Snell proving that he has plenty left in the tank after a dominant second half, they will likely be one of many teams to check in on the veteran two-time Cy Young Award winner.