Left-hander Ranger Suárez is one of the top free agent starting pitchers still available. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Astros, Cubs and Orioles are the clubs most likely to pluck him away from the Philadelphia, though the Phillies remain in the mix. Feinsand adds that the Mets and Tigers are also involved in the southpaw’s market. Jeff Passan of ESPN adds that Suárez has long been a target of Houston and Baltimore.
Suárez, 30, has been pretty consistent in terms of his results in recent years. He’s generally been able to combine decent strikeout and walk rates with strong ground ball numbers. However, he also has some question marks since his velocity isn’t huge by modern standards and some injuries have prevented him from being a workhorse.
Over the past four seasons, Suárez has tossed 588 1/3 innings for the Phillies, allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine. He punched out 21.9% of batters faced in that time and gave out walks at a 7.5% pace, both marks being close to typical league averages. His 50.8% ground ball rate in that span was quite strong.
He has spent at least some time on the injured list in each of those campaigns. Back problems are a recurring issue but there was also an elbow strain and a hamstring strain mixed in. Due to those injury setbacks, he has never hit the 160-inning mark in any season of his career. As for the velocity, he was able to average in the 93-94 mile per hour range with his fastball a few years ago. However, over the past two seasons, he’s been in the 91-92 mph range.
It’s not a perfect profile but Suárez is still one of the better arms out there. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Suárez could secure a five-year, $115MM deal. He was the fourth starting pitcher on the list, behind Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai. Cease has signed with the Blue Jays but Valdez, Imai and Suárez remain three of the most attractive starting pitchers available. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning any other team that signs him would be subject to the associated penalties.
Valdez is a fairly similar pitcher, since he’s also a ground ball guy, but he edges past Suárez for a few reasons. Though he’s two years older, he’s been more durable. While Suárez has never got to 160 innings, Valdez got to at least 176 in each of the past four seasons, including three with at least 192 frames. His ground ball rate is usually in the 60% range, about 10 points ahead of Suárez. His velocity has also been a few ticks above Suárez of late. MLBTR predicted Valdez for $150MM over five years.
The Astros just lost Valdez to free agency and need help in the rotation due to a large number of injuries. They seem to have a tight budget, with an apparent desire to avoid the competitive balance tax. It therefore makes sense that they might look to pivot to Suárez as a way to effectively replace Valdez at a discount.
RosterResource has Houston’s CBT number around $220MM, putting them roughly $24MM below next year’s base threshold of the tax. Signing Suárez would likely put them right up against the line but they could also create some more room by trading someone like Jake Meyers, Jesús Sánchez or Christian Walker.
Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias has publicly admitted that the club is looking for a front-of-rotation starter to slot next to Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. They have generally avoided big splashes on the pitching side. They also needed rotation help last year and ended up giving one-year deals to Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, relatively older guys without much upside. It’s possible they make a bolder strike this offseason, having been connected to Imai, Valdez and others.
The Cubs are also known to be on the lookout for rotation upgrades. They have a number of decent arms already on the roster but clearly want to raise the ceiling by adding a playoff-caliber arm. They were interested in Cease before he came off the board and have also been connected to Imai, Michael King and others.
RosterResource has them less than $50MM away from the tax line, which they have generally tried not to cross in recent years. They could also consider a big offensive upgrade, such as going after Alex Bregman. Getting both a big-name starter and Bregman could push them close to that line.
The Tigers have a big ace in Tarik Skubal but could upgrade the group behind him. As of now, Reese Olson, Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty are his best supports but the club could get an external upgrade and bump each of those guys down a peg. They haven’t been signing top free agents for a while but the tier below seems possible. They have been connected to King and now Suárez this offseason.
The Mets dealt with a lot of rotation injuries in 2025, forcing them to rely on rookies Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat. There’s talent there but the club clearly wants to make additions after a narrow playoff miss. They have been connected to Imai as well as Joe Ryan of the Twins.
They have a lot of moving parts in their offseason. Acquiring Marcus Semien might push Jeff McNeil to the trade block. They also might want to flip out Kodai Senga as they also add to the rotation. They may or may not re-sign Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz. They also might be in the markets for Cody Bellinger and other free agents.
As for the Phillies, they could try to bring back Suárez but it might not be their priority right now. Zack Wheeler may miss the beginning of the season due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery but it’s possible he can rejoin the club fairly early in the campaign. Once back, he would slot into the rotation with Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter.
The Phils could bolster that group but they also have other things on the to-do list. They want to re-sign Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto while also remaking their outfield. Amid all of that, it’s possible one of these other clubs has a chance to lure Suárez away.
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