How are we feeling about the 2024 Mets now that the season is about to start?
Back in mid-February, we collected our feelings about the 2024 Mets and put them in a post. But with spring training in the books, Opening Day just about upon us, Kodai Senga starting the year on the injured list, and J.D. Martinez signed and coming soon as the team’s regular DH, we thought we’d take our collective baseball temperature again.
Allison McCague
In the February vibe check, I lamented how many free agents who could help the Mets remained unsigned late into the offseason. Since then, the Mets did indeed sign one of them in J.D. Martinez and that has improved my outlook on the team somewhat. The offense this spring has looked abysmal, which only underscored the need for at least one more major league hitter in the lineup. The protection that Martinez can provide Pete Alonso batting cleanup behind him makes a big difference in the overall look and vibe of the lineup, even if it may not have a huge impact on the team’s projected win total.
I have been pleasantly surprised at how good the pitching has looked this spring and it makes me more optimistic that the Mets can weather Kodai Senga’s absence than I was when his injury was first reported. That said, I still don’t feel great about the state of the team and can’t help but see Jordan Montgomery still unsigned the week of Opening Day and feel that the Mets could have done more to improve their odds of snatching a Wild Card slot, since that’s about the best we can hope for in 2024. But I can’t pretend hearing “Narco” again this spring at Clover Park didn’t pump me up and make me ready for a healthy Edwin Díaz and some Mets baseball.
Nate Gismot
Last month, I expressed a muted shade of hopefulness about the upcoming season, citing to the potential of talented young players, the improved depth of the Mets’ minor league system, and the evergreen truth that teams sometimes outperform expectations. I maintained that point of view throughout most of spring training—and then JD Martinez signed. The news broke as unexpectedly as a rogue wave, but with far happier results. It is difficult to overstate the positive implications of Martinez’s bat in the lineup; he quite simply makes the team much better. Beyond that, it was a delight to see how universally—or near-universally—well the news was received. It seemed like fans and players alike were overjoyed with Martinez’s arrival and understood what a boon he is to the team’s fortunes. It had been a long time since there was that kind of joy around the team. For me, “the vibes” took a big, lasting hit when Jacob deGrom deCamped for Texas. The 2023 season did little to help there, and while I was encouraged by the hiring of David Stearns, it was hard not to retreat into disappointment throughout the offseason at various times. JD Martinez is but a mercenary DH, but he means something already. He’s a spark, a signal—a message of hope and excitement and optimism. I can’t wait to see how it plays out.
David Capobianco
Six weeks ago, I said I was fairly unexcited for the season, but I didn’t think the Mets were definitively bad, and maybe even good. A wild card berth was within the range of median outcomes for this team, and not *just* a best-case scenario, which was supported by basically every projection system pegging them for 80-84 wins.
Since then, we’ve lost a Kodai Senga and gained a J.D. Martinez. Senga is progressing well from his injury, so far, and looks like he can still be back by mid-May should everything go well. Regardless, the Mets lacking an ace at the top of the rotation feels bad, but in truth, there are very few “true aces” left in baseball, and many of the ones who you would describe as such are also starting the year on the shelf. So the Mets aren’t exactly as behind 8-ball in the rotation as you might think, and they have more viable major league options both in their rotation and in the minors than a majority of teams do. I’m actually higher on the rotation than I am on the offense because of that.
Now, Martinez does assuage a lot of my concerns offensively, but the Starling Marte Issue does not appear to be going away, Brett Baty is still hitting the ball on the ground, and Jeff McNeil looks to be a mechanical mess in spring. The offense might look very different by mid-year with the infusion of some of the prospects, but the first few months could be a little rough.
Anyway, my feelings remain largely the same. Given the state of the NL, there’s no reason this team can’t be in the mix, and with some higher end outcomes in the rotation, they could even challenge for that fourth seed and host a playoff series. This group still doesn’t fill me with much excitement, though, and I’m not as hyped for the start of the season as I usually am. They’re going to have to emotionally win me over on the field.
Michael Drago
No matter what your expectations are for any given season, it’s hard not to feel some level of excitement once spring rolls around and you start to see some actual baseball games on your screen. At a certain point, you get to stop worrying about the macro view of things (can the Mets make a legitimate run at the postseason?) and just fixate on the smaller storylines that might give you some small but meaningful reasons for optimism (hey, that Nate Lavender guy looks pretty good; maybe he can be a bullpen piece at some point!).
But of course, the recent J.D. Martinez signing is not just a small reason for optimism – it is a legitimate and meaningful addition which should spare us of some tiring Mark Vientos discourse and give the Mets a solid bat in the lineup that they so desperately need. I still would not say that I feel great about the state of this offense – there’s still every chance that we’ll see two or three well-below average bats in the lineup on a consistent basis – but the ceiling has been raised, at least.
I still feel fairly confident about the pitching staff, relatively speaking. Sean Manaea and Luis Severino seem like they’re capable of being solid starters, the pitching depth should allow them to survive the temporary loss of Kodai Senga, and Edwin Díaz and Narco will single-handedly restore a huge percentage of the vibes that were destroyed last year. So that would leave us with a team with a slightly above-average pitching staff and a slightly below-average offense. Is that good enough to make them contenders for October? It might be and it might not be. But if nothing else, I’m not expecting them to be terrible. And either way, I will enjoy getting to watch the pieces fall into place.
Linda Surovich
Mets, just when I think the vibes couldn’t possibly be worse you go and do something like this……and totally redeem yourself! The questionable pitching looked, dare I say, good, Edwin Díaz and the return of Narco brought immaculate vibes, and of course J.D. Martinez was signed. An argument could be made that could have been and should have been done sooner but at least they realized DJ Stewart and Mark Vientos were not going to cut it in a lineup with multiple question marks. Brett Baty struggled, Starling Marte still needs to prove he can bounce back from an injury-shortened season, and Jeff McNeil missed a good portion of camp with an injury.
So not every question facing this team was answered as camp comes to a close and Opening Day is almost upon us, but there is more hope now than at the beginning of spring. When J.D. Martinez joins the lineup they have the potential to do some serious damage. Francisco Lindor is coming off a 30/30 season, this is Pete Alonso’s contract year, and Francisco Alvarez is a serious power threat.
Right now the Mets are a hope meter with one side saying things go horribly wrong and the other side saying things go great, and they pointed themselves slightly in the maybe things go right direction. They are still relying too much on health and bounce back seasons from quite a few members on the roster buy hey maybe things go right this time. Ya Gotta Believe
Vasilis Drimalitis
I’d be lying if I said the J.D. Martinez signing didn’t boost my excitement for the season considerably. While I’m always ready for baseball, regardless of the expectations, it felt that something was missing for the Mets heading into 2024. When last we spoke, I was teetering between appreciating/understanding the team’s long-term vision but feeling that they had not done nearly enough to make up for being a mid-70s win team last year.
Between then and now, Kodai Senga suffered an injury that is expected to keep him out (at minimum) for the season’s first month. That hurt the vibes considerably, and resulted in a starting rotation that’s none too pretty to look at on paper. One of the few joys of the miserable 2023 season was watching Kodai Senga pitch for the Mets. As a fan, when expectations for the club overall are low, I tend to latch on to fun individual performances to carry me through the season—be it Francisco Lindor’s 30/30 last year, Pete Alonso’s 53 homers in 2019, or Jacob deGrom’s historic 2018 campaign. Knowing that we’d be deprived of some Senga ghost fork greatness in 2024 only dulled my already diminished excitement for the season.
But two things have happened since then to lift my spirits (besides the approach of Opening Day on the calendar). First: Edwin Díaz’s spring training debut. Going back to my previous point on Senga, not having Díaz last year, along with hurting the team on the field and sinking the vibes early, made the club a much less enjoyable experience. The sounds of Narco blaring on the Citi Field PA was one of the most uplifting and memorable parts of what was, until September, an amazing 2022 campaign for the club and us fans. Seeing Díaz pitch, albeit in spring, just reminded me of how much fun he can be, and seeing the fans lose it to Narco in a spring training game only reinforced how important he is to the fabric of this club right now. It helps that the closer looked positively lights out in that return.
And then, the club surprised many (including myself) by signing J.D. Martinez to a one-year deal. I was none too thrilled at the prospect of having to watch Mark Vientos and DJ Stewart share DH duties this year, and I’ve been clamoring for the club to ink Martinez for quite some time. The Mets waited it out, got their price, and pulled the trigger, and I applaud them for it. While he won’t actually be ready for Opening Day, adding a bona fide hitter behind Pete Alonso is a huge deal, as it lengthens the lineup and offers some protection to the team’s stars at the top. This is also a guy coming off an All Star each of the past seasons, which should not be ignored here. Between him, Alonso, and Francisco Lindor, the team should generate some runs, even if the bottom of the lineup features some less-than-prolific bats.
I’m not sure if the Martinez signing or Díaz’s return are enough to add ~ten wins and carry the Mets into the postseason. I think a lot of it depends on a) how much time Senga misses, b) how well the young kids (Alvarez, Baty) perform, and c) how guys like Marte, McNeil, and Severino, to name a few, rebound after underwhelming seasons last year. I think there’s enough talent on this roster to make the Mets a viable postseason contender, likely in one of the last two Wild Card spots. But with Opening Day here, and with the roster set, it’s go time, and *cue Michael Scott meme* I’m ready to be hurt again. No doubt about it.
Brian Salvatore
The Mets needed a lot going into this offseason and they managed to get most of it…just not in the way(s) that we expected. No Yamamoto, no Turner, no additional relief ace. Until the team signed J.D. Martinez just days ago, there was not a single signing that felt like it had the ability to remake the team’s chances for the season.
And so, for most of the offseason, the vibes around the Mets felt, if not bad, then certainly subdued and maybe a little infuriating. Not that the front office should bitch and moan when things don’t go their way, but it just felt like there was an attitude of “things are fine!” when it looked like things were actually not so hot.
But Martinez changes everything for the team. They added a middle of the order bat for nearly nothing, and now the lineup looks considerably better than it did a week ago. This also makes their other, smaller additions, seem like small pieces of a larger vision, as opposed to the entirety of that vision. The rotation has looked shockingly good this spring (add all the caveats you need to make that not sound ridiculous), and the additional bullpen depth that came in seems to give the team a real shot at an effective relief corps.
It really doesn’t matter how the team got here, to a place where the vibes finally feel appropriately hopeful for this time of year. Senga is on his way back, Martinez is here, “Narco” is cued up. The Mets may be good this year. Let’s drink to that.
Chris McShane
Throughout most of spring training, even after the Kodai Senga injury, I maintained that I was one J.D. Martinez signing away from being irrationally optimistic about the 2024 Mets. And here we are.
It still feels like the Mets could have and should have done more than they did over the course of the offseason, as Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, and—when he returns to the rotation—Kodai Senga are in their primes. Hell, Jordan Montgomery is still out there at the time of this writing and would objectively make the Mets a better team immediately, just as Martinez did when they signed him last week.
That signing alone, though, makes the team’s lineup look much more formidable. Now, if only one of Jeff McNeil or Starling Marte bounces back and Francisco Alvarez takes just a small step forward, the team’s lineup looks pretty good. It’ll be a bonus if Brett Baty makes a massive improvement or both McNeil and Marte return to 2022 form.
There are still flaws on this roster, and that’s reflected in the projected standings. But I’m at least expecting the Mets to win more games than they lose this year. For most of the winter, I didn’t feel that way, and again, this optimism may be irrational. But Opening Day is upon is, and I’ll allow it.
Thomas Henderson
My vibes re: the 2024 Mets have been largely similar throughout this offseason, and they can be surmised in one word: Fine. And I do not take that as a negative stance on my feelings on the club.
The 2023 Mets were an abject disaster, there is basically no other way to put it. Their moves at the deadline both helped their long term future but hurt their short term future, and a lot of the bad vibes surrounding the team was heavily influenced by those decisions (i.e. the millions and millions of dead money on the books). Despite that disaster, I never really thought the team was not talented.
Going into Spring Training, the team was anchored by Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil. Francisco Alvarez had a very promising rookie campaign. Brett Baty had an up and down (mostly down) 2023 season, but is still only 24 years old and was a Top 40 prospect at his most conservative public ranking going into last season. Edwin Diaz was back and looked to be a stabilizing force in the bullpen. David Stearns did not light the world on fire this off-season, but he made interesting upside plays with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino.
Up until recently, they seemed insistent on seeing if their incumbent designated hitter choices took the job by the horns — they decidedly did not, and the Mets went out and signed J.D. Martinez, who probably is their best signing this winter (yes, I know it is nearly April but you know what I mean). You can easily make the case that he is the best pure hitter on the roster, despite him being 36 years old, and that was necessary for a team that told us time and time again that playoff baseball is the goal.
Perhaps the biggest reason why I never wavered from “my vibes are Fine and that is fine” feelings regarding the 2024 Mets is the state of baseball writ large. The National League has the Dodgers, who are a Super Team(™), and the Braves, who are an organization filled with young players that do not seem to miss on, well, much of anything. The two are in their own universe in the National League.
But the rest? Who knows.
The Phillies are almost certainly the third best team in the NL, but they have players with injury concerns and not the best depth in the world. When healthy, though, they’re a wagon. The rest of the Wild Card teams are simply similarly flawed to the Mets.
The Giants made a March splash with signing Blake Snell and pairing him with Logan Webb, but they have depth issues in the rotation and a weird lineup that I’m not sure what to make of. The Diamondbacks snuck into the playoffs last year and went on a Cinderella run, but immediately lost their big pitcher signing in Eduardo Rodriguez for an extended period of time to a lat injury, which is not great for them. The Padres traded Juan Soto, traded some of that return for Dylan Cease, and have perilously thin depth seemingly everywhere. The NL Central seems just average all around. Looking in division, the Marlins, who made the playoffs last year, signed one (1) major league free agent in Tim Anderson, who has had some very good seasons in his career, but also hit .245/.286/.296 (60 wRC+) last season and had a -0.5 fWAR. The strength of their team, the starting pitching, has gotten hit hard by the injury bug this spring.
According to PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus’ prediction system) all of the Phillies (I personally think this is low for them but alas), Mets, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Padres are projected to have between 80 and 85 wins. While the ceiling of the Dodgers and Braves probably is not there, the Mets are right in the thick of the Wild Card projections.
So, why not the Mets?