The Mets have reportedly already checked in on a couple of these pitchers.
While the Mets’ stated focus before the trade deadline is improving their bullpen, as demonstrated by their deal to acquire Gregory Soto yesterday, it’s hard to separate the Mets’ bullpen woes from their workload. Since June 25, the Mets have gotten the fewest innings from their starting pitchers (100.1 IP, an average of 4.35 per game) of any team in baseball. Though their rotation is finally healthy, the Mets are also facing a Clay Holmes conundrum, as the reliever-turned-starter has currently tallied 113.2 innings on the season—well beyond his previous career-high of 70.0.
While the odds that general manager David Stearns splurges for a starter are low, especially with prospects Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong waiting in the wings, the Mets have nonetheless checked in on Padres right-hander Dylan Cease and Sandy Alcantara. So if Stearns is looking to add a right-hander outside the organization at the deadline, who might be a fit?
The aforementioned Dylan Cease is one of the highest-profile names on the trading block, and he should command one of the highest prices. Since his debut in 2019, Cease has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball, ranking first in strikeouts (1,160) and seventh in innings pitched (961.0). A Cy Young runner-up with the White Sox in 2022, the 29-year-old currently holds a 4.59 ERA with 144 strikeouts and 42 walks in his contract year with the Padres. While San Diego is unlikely to part with Cease as they progress on a path toward October baseball this season, the organization is still listening to offers.
The most fascinating potential trade target might be within the Mets’ own division, as the Marlins appear poised to deal former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, which had kept him out through the entire 2024 season, Alcantara has an egregious 6.66 ERA. He’s signed through 2026 with a team option for 2027, which could make him an attractive, high-reward reclamation project for Jeremy Hefner and the Mets’ staff. Alcantara still averages 97.5 mph on his four-seam fastball, and he ranks 15th among qualified right-handers with 2.1 inches of arm-side break on his sinker.
Another trade candidate with multiple years left on his contract is the Pirates’ Mitch Keller, who is signed to stay in Pittsburgh through 2028. At 29 years old, Keller is having his best season yet, posting a 3.53 ERA with 125.0 IP (the fourth-most in the National League). Durability is one of Keller’s greatest strengths; since the start of 2023, he has thrown the fifth-most innings of any pitcher in MLB behind Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, José Berríos, and Framber Valdez. For the rebuilding Pirates to part with Keller, it would likely take a steeper package of prospects.
There are a plethora of cheaper rental options on non-contending teams who should also be available. The stagnating Arizona Diamondbacks, for example, have a pair of contract-year pitchers to shop in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Since a pair of top-five Cy Young finishes in 2022 and 2023, Gallen’s stock has plummeted; the 29-year-old currently has a 5.58 ERA, and his peripherals—including a 7th-percentile barrel rate—don’t look particularly encouraging, either.
Kelly has enjoyed more success this season, posting a 3.32 ERA (which would be a 2.74 ERA excluding one disastrous afternoon in the Bronx) over 122.0 IP. According to Buster Olney of ESPN, the Diamondbacks aren’t yet committed to “go all-in on selling” at the deadline. But given the trade of Josh Naylor, it seems a strong possibility that Gallen and Kelly are on the move as the Diamondbacks fall farther out of contention.
The Orioles, meanwhile, have a trio of contract-year pitchers in Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, and Tomoyuki Sugano. While the veterans Eflin and Morton have struggled to the tune of a respective 5.78 and 5.48 ERA, both could provide affordable and dependable depth. Sugano, a 35-year-old rookie from Japan who won the Eiji Sawamura award (given to the best pitcher in the NPB each season) in 2017 and 2018, has slowed since a successful start to his MLB career. Sugano held a 3.04 ERA with a 3.64 K/BB ratio through June 3, but has recorded a 7.88 ERA and 1.53 K/BB ratio in seven starts since then.
The Rockies will be looking to get whatever they can for 30-year-old Germán Márquez, who has put up a 5.67 ERA in his contract year. And the Rays have a contract-year starter in 29-year-old Zack Littell, whose 3.58 ERA since the start of 2024 ranks 17th among qualified starters. Though the Rays are just 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the third A.L. Wild Card spot, the organization notoriously prizes long-term value and efficiency above all else—a mindset which may very well prompt them to deal Littell.
Finally, if Stearns seriously wanted to swing a deal for a right-handed starter, two of his best options might be former Mets. Since departing in free agency following the 2022 season, Seth Lugo has been every bit the starting pitcher he thought he could be, posting the 14th-most innings (466.0) and ninth-best ERA (3.17) among qualified pitchers in baseball. Lugo is in the second year of a three-year, $45M deal with the Royals, but is expected to exercise an opt-out after this season given his performance has well exceeded his payment. With the Royals teetering on the brink of contention, currently 4.5 games out of a playoff spot, Lugo has suddenly become a leading rental option.
Across Lugo’s division, Adrian Houser has had a remarkable resurgence after his abysmal 2024 campaign. In 10 starts, Houser holds a 1.89 ERA while completing six innings eight times; for comparison’s sake, since Houser’s season debut on May 20, David Peterson is the only Mets starter to have completed six innings more than three times. The White Sox are currently languishing in last place in the A.L. Central, not to mention having the worst record in the entire A.L., so getting value for Houser before his one-year contract expires is a must in the coming days for the Sox. Stearns watched Houser pitch for years in Milwaukee, and believed in Houser’s potential enough to acquire him via trade last offseason. Who’s to say Stearns wouldn’t bet on Houser again?